Post by tall_one on May 23, 2004 11:25:22 GMT
Breaking down the French Open draw[/u]
Jon Wertheim
1. Roger Federer: Take this to the bank: He will eclipse his performance from 2002 and 2003. Particularly after Hamburg, Federer -- winner of two of the past three Slams -- is a sensible pick. But his draw is brutal (just to meet his nemesis David Nalbandian in the quarters, he'll have to get through Nicolas Kiefer, Gustavo Kuerten and Feliciano Lopez). If he survives those matches, you wonder if he won't be fried.
2. Andy Roddick: We like his improved court positioning on clay as well as his insistence on heading netward. But on what is far and away his worst surface, it will be a considerable achievement if he reaches the middle weekend. (On the other hand, he sure can't complain about his draw.)
3. Guillermo Coria: Your 2004 winner.
4. Juan Carlos Ferrero: Defending champ has had a rough year. Even during his stealthy run to the Australian semis, he wasn't at his best. Track record alone puts him on the short list of contenders. But, slowed by injuries, he is simply not the player he was a year ago. Plus, he starts off against Tommy Haas.
5. Carlos Moya: Elite player but has a knack for mystifying Slam losses. If he's in form, a likely quarterfinal throwdown with Coria could decide the championship.
6. Andre Agassi: The 1999 champ is coming in with little momentum, facing an onslaught of questions about his future. He'll have a few easy matches to play himself into a groove, but it's hard to see him advancing beyond his seeding.
7. Rainer Schuettler: The Germanator's year has been lousy thus far, but a sauerkraut draw might help him pick up traction.
8. David Nalbandian: Wish he were healthier, but he's still a player to watch.
9. Tim Henman: It's a countdown to Wimbledon.
10. Sébastien Grosjean: Mr. Big Pants has had a quiet year, but he could generate some noise here. Shouldn't be tested until round three.
11. Nicolas Massu: Intriguing prospect. Starts off easy, but then has to meet Tommy Robredo and Moya.
12. Lleyton Hewitt: Has little trace of his 2002 swagger and has never done particularly well at Roland Garros. On the other hand, the draw gods smiled on him, and he may perform well now that the attention has shifted elsewhere. Just don't schedule him on a back court.
13. Paradorn Srichaphan: Struggling and playing on his worst surface, P-Dorn is an upset-in-waiting.
14. Jiri Novak: Look for Gaston Gaudio to beat him in round two.
15. Sjeng Schalken: Always a threat to make waves. Never a threat to win, especially on clay.
16. Fernando Gonzalez: Terminal over-hitter has cooperative draw.
LOWER SEEDS WORTH WATCHING
17. Tommy Robredo: Talented, mentally iffy player beat Hewitt after trailing two sets to love last year.
19. Martin Verkerk: Just to cover our bases.
20. Marat Safin: As always, he's as capable of winning as he is of getting tuned in his first match with Agustin Calleri.
21. Andrei Pavel: Nice mini-comeback for Romanian dad.
22. Juan Ignacio Chela: Star this pony in your racing form.
23. Feliciano Lopez: Highest ranked lefty on ATP.
26. Albert Costa: Does the 2002 champ still have some magic?
27. Vincent Spadea: Agassi notwithstanding, the one American who has some natural aptitude on dirt.
28. Gustavo Kuerten: A shell of the player he once was but still dangerous on clay.
31. Dominik Hrbaty: Talented, hit-or-whiff player who has had past success at Roland Garros.
DARK HORSE NATION
Tommy Haas: When he knocks off Ferrero, remember you heard it here first.
Gaston Gaudio: If he keeps his head -- no small condition -- he could go far.
Victor Hanescu: Best player you don't know.
Fernando Verdasco: Big game even on clay.
Robin Soderling: Not sure about his clay proficiency but due for a breakthrough.
Filippo Volandri: Long live Italian tennis.
Nicolas Escude: Dangerous as always -- particularly with the home crowd behind him.
FIRST-ROUND MATCHES TO WATCH
Soderling vs. Schalken
Calleri vs. Safin
Gasquet vs. Nalbandian
Ferrero vs. Haas
Clement vs. Santoro
Roddick vs. T. Martin
PREDICTIONS
Semis: Federer vs. Gaudio, Coria vs. Total Surprise
Final: Federer vs. Coria
Winner: Coria
Jon Wertheim
1. Roger Federer: Take this to the bank: He will eclipse his performance from 2002 and 2003. Particularly after Hamburg, Federer -- winner of two of the past three Slams -- is a sensible pick. But his draw is brutal (just to meet his nemesis David Nalbandian in the quarters, he'll have to get through Nicolas Kiefer, Gustavo Kuerten and Feliciano Lopez). If he survives those matches, you wonder if he won't be fried.
2. Andy Roddick: We like his improved court positioning on clay as well as his insistence on heading netward. But on what is far and away his worst surface, it will be a considerable achievement if he reaches the middle weekend. (On the other hand, he sure can't complain about his draw.)
3. Guillermo Coria: Your 2004 winner.
4. Juan Carlos Ferrero: Defending champ has had a rough year. Even during his stealthy run to the Australian semis, he wasn't at his best. Track record alone puts him on the short list of contenders. But, slowed by injuries, he is simply not the player he was a year ago. Plus, he starts off against Tommy Haas.
5. Carlos Moya: Elite player but has a knack for mystifying Slam losses. If he's in form, a likely quarterfinal throwdown with Coria could decide the championship.
6. Andre Agassi: The 1999 champ is coming in with little momentum, facing an onslaught of questions about his future. He'll have a few easy matches to play himself into a groove, but it's hard to see him advancing beyond his seeding.
7. Rainer Schuettler: The Germanator's year has been lousy thus far, but a sauerkraut draw might help him pick up traction.
8. David Nalbandian: Wish he were healthier, but he's still a player to watch.
9. Tim Henman: It's a countdown to Wimbledon.
10. Sébastien Grosjean: Mr. Big Pants has had a quiet year, but he could generate some noise here. Shouldn't be tested until round three.
11. Nicolas Massu: Intriguing prospect. Starts off easy, but then has to meet Tommy Robredo and Moya.
12. Lleyton Hewitt: Has little trace of his 2002 swagger and has never done particularly well at Roland Garros. On the other hand, the draw gods smiled on him, and he may perform well now that the attention has shifted elsewhere. Just don't schedule him on a back court.
13. Paradorn Srichaphan: Struggling and playing on his worst surface, P-Dorn is an upset-in-waiting.
14. Jiri Novak: Look for Gaston Gaudio to beat him in round two.
15. Sjeng Schalken: Always a threat to make waves. Never a threat to win, especially on clay.
16. Fernando Gonzalez: Terminal over-hitter has cooperative draw.
LOWER SEEDS WORTH WATCHING
17. Tommy Robredo: Talented, mentally iffy player beat Hewitt after trailing two sets to love last year.
19. Martin Verkerk: Just to cover our bases.
20. Marat Safin: As always, he's as capable of winning as he is of getting tuned in his first match with Agustin Calleri.
21. Andrei Pavel: Nice mini-comeback for Romanian dad.
22. Juan Ignacio Chela: Star this pony in your racing form.
23. Feliciano Lopez: Highest ranked lefty on ATP.
26. Albert Costa: Does the 2002 champ still have some magic?
27. Vincent Spadea: Agassi notwithstanding, the one American who has some natural aptitude on dirt.
28. Gustavo Kuerten: A shell of the player he once was but still dangerous on clay.
31. Dominik Hrbaty: Talented, hit-or-whiff player who has had past success at Roland Garros.
DARK HORSE NATION
Tommy Haas: When he knocks off Ferrero, remember you heard it here first.
Gaston Gaudio: If he keeps his head -- no small condition -- he could go far.
Victor Hanescu: Best player you don't know.
Fernando Verdasco: Big game even on clay.
Robin Soderling: Not sure about his clay proficiency but due for a breakthrough.
Filippo Volandri: Long live Italian tennis.
Nicolas Escude: Dangerous as always -- particularly with the home crowd behind him.
FIRST-ROUND MATCHES TO WATCH
Soderling vs. Schalken
Calleri vs. Safin
Gasquet vs. Nalbandian
Ferrero vs. Haas
Clement vs. Santoro
Roddick vs. T. Martin
PREDICTIONS
Semis: Federer vs. Gaudio, Coria vs. Total Surprise
Final: Federer vs. Coria
Winner: Coria
